Demographic trends are a key factor in understanding the evolution of social, economic and environmental dynamics. In the Mediterranean region, population growth, age distribution and indicators of birth rates, fertility rates and infant mortality paint an extremely varied picture.
Population ages 65 and above (% of total population)
Age dependency ratio, old (% of working-age population)
Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
area_code
ordgeo
Countries
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2023
2024
2023
2023
Portugal
10,701,636.0
1.2
12.8
24.3
38.7
8.1
1.5
82.3
2.6
A
1
Spain
48,807,137.0
0.9
13.1
20.9
31.7
6.7
1.2
83.9
2.4
A
2
France
68,516,699.0
0.3
16.6
21.9
35.7
9.9
1.6
82.9
3.5
A
3
Italy
58,952,703.5
-0.1
12.2
24.3
38.3
6.4
1.2
83.0
2.2
A
4
Slovenia
2,126,324.0
0.3
14.8
21.6
33.9
8.0
1.6
82.0
1.8
A
5
Croatia
3,866,300.0
0.2
14.0
23.0
36.5
8.3
1.5
78.5
3.5
A
6
Greece
10,388,805.0
-0.2
13.4
23.7
37.7
6.8
1.3
81.5
3.3
A
7
Malta
574,346.0
3.8
13.1
20.0
29.9
8.1
1.1
83.5
6.2
A
8
Cyprus
1,358,282.0
1.0
16.1
14.5
20.8
10.8
1.4
81.7
3.1
A
9
Serbia
6,587,202.0
-0.5
14.3
22.5
35.6
9.2
1.5
76.2
4.2
B
10
Kosovo
1,527,324.0
-9.7
21.0
9.8
14.2
12.1
1.5
78.0
8.1
B
11
Bosnia and Herzegovina
3,164,253.0
-0.7
13.1
21.9
33.8
7.7
1.5
77.8
5.3
B
12
Montenegro
623,831.0
0.1
18.2
17.6
27.5
11.2
1.8
77.6
1.7
B
13
North Macedonia
1,792,179.0
-2.0
16.9
17.8
27.2
9.2
1.5
75.3
4.7
B
14
Albania
2,714,617.0
-1.1
16.9
16.6
25.0
10.2
1.3
79.6
8.1
B
15
Turkiye
85,518,661.0
0.2
21.6
10.1
14.9
11.2
1.6
77.2
9.2
C
16
Syrian Arab Republic
24,672,760.0
4.5
29.7
4.7
7.2
22.1
2.7
72.1
16.7
C
17
Lebanon
5,805,962.0
0.6
26.4
10.0
15.7
16.1
2.2
77.8
15.7
C
18
Jordan
11,552,876.0
1.0
30.9
4.4
6.8
20.6
2.6
77.8
11.8
C
19
Israel
9,974,400.0
1.3
27.5
12.5
20.8
18.6
2.8
83.2
2.8
C
20
West Bank and Gaza
5,289,152.0
2.4
38.2
3.8
6.6
27.1
3.3
65.2
14.2
C
21
Egypt, Arab Rep.
116,538,258.0
1.7
32.2
5.0
8.0
21.0
2.7
71.6
14.6
D
22
Libya
7,381,023.0
1.0
27.7
5.0
7.3
17.0
2.3
69.3
16.0
D
23
Tunisia
12,277,109.0
0.6
24.2
9.3
14.1
13.8
1.8
76.5
9.0
D
24
Algeria
46,814,308.0
1.4
30.5
6.5
10.3
19.6
2.7
76.3
17.8
D
25
Morocco
38,081,173.0
1.0
25.8
8.0
12.1
16.7
2.2
75.3
14.3
D
26
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
West Bank and GazaLatest available data: 2023
Some highlighted topics
Population size and dynamics
In 2024, the total population of the Mediterranean region is 585.6 million people, of whom almost two-fifths
live in North Africa (221.1 million, or 37.8% of the total), 205.3 million in the European Union (35.1%),
142.8 million in the Middle East (24.4%) and 16.4 million in the Western Balkans (2.8%). The seven most
populous countries are, in descending order: Egypt, Turkey, France, Italy, Spain, Algeria and Morocco.
Compared to the previous year, there was a slight overall increase in all geographical areas, with the
exception of the Balkans, where the population decreased by 1.7%.
Over the last two decades, the population has increased by more than a quarter (+27.3%) compared to 2001, with
significant differences between geographical areas and within them. North Africa has the largest population and
the most marked relative increase (+47.3%), with Egypt contributing most in both absolute and relative terms
(+41.9 million, +56.1%), followed by Algeria (+49.4%). The overall trend in the Middle East is slightly lower
(+39.1%), with the largest contribution coming from Turkey in absolute terms (+19.3 million) and Jordan, West
Bank and Gaza and Israel in relative terms (+110.1%, +76.4% and +54.9% respectively). Population growth in the
Mediterranean countries of the European Union was very modest (+9.2%), with more significant trends in Spain and
France (+19.5 and +11.7% respectively), a moderate balance in Italy (+3.5%) and a reduction in the number of
inhabitants in Croatia and Greece. The Western Balkans is the only area to record a population decline between
2001 and 2024 (-14.6%), with Bosnia and Herzegovina (-24.3%) being the most affected.
The demographic trend in terms of annual growth over the last twenty years shows different dynamics in the
seven most populous countries in the Mediterranean area (Figure 1). Egypt has long been the country with the
highest growth rate, exceeding 2% per annum, albeit with an uneven pace of growth: a decline from 2005 to 2010
followed by a recovery in the following four years, then a further slowdown. Algeria recorded annual growth of
between +1.5% and +2%, rising steadily in the first fifteen years of the period under review, then slowing
from 2017 onwards.
Turkey and Morocco are experiencing moderate population growth of between 1% and 1.5%, with a gradual slowdown
in both countries. In the case of Turkey, this slowdown was particularly marked in 2023 and continued in 2024
(only +0.2% compared to the previous year). Among European countries, Spain's population growth is
concentrated in the first decade and then declines sharply, albeit with a slight recovery of +1.2% in 2023,
which weakens again in the last year. In France, the trend is more regular, consistently below one percentage
point of annual growth and at more modest levels in recent years. Finally, Italy stands out for a clear change
in dynamics over the entire period: weak population growth that came to a halt in 2014, the year that marked
the beginning of an uninterrupted decline in population; the decline in the last two years, 2023 and 2024, is
stationary.
Figure 1 – Annual population growth in the most populous countries of the Mediterranean region. Period
2001-2024 (% compared to previous year)
...
Demographic structure
In 2024, the youngest population group, under 14 years of age, represents 22.8% of the entire Mediterranean
area, reaching a quarter of the total population in Middle Eastern countries and peaking in North Africa
(30.2%), with the highest values in West Bank and Gaza (38.2%), Egypt (32.2%) and Jordan (31.0%). The Western
Balkans have a lower percentage of this population group (15.6%), with the highest figure in Kosovo (21.0%).
In European Union countries, on the other hand, the incidence of children under the age of 14 is the lowest,
with the highest figure in France (16.6%) and the lowest in Italy (12.2%).
In contrast, EU countries as a whole have the highest incidence of elderly people aged 65 and over (22.8%),
with the highest figures in Italy and Portugal, where almost a quarter of the population is over 64 (24.5%);
only Cyprus and Malta have a percentage below the European average. The percentage of this population segment
is slightly lower in the Western Balkans (19.6%), followed by the Middle East (8.8%), where West Bank and Gaza
has the lowest incidence of elderly people in the entire Mediterranean region (3.8%). Finally, North Africa,
the youngest area in the Mediterranean region, ranks last, with older people accounting for only 6.2% of the
total population.
Birth rate and fertility
The younger demographic structure of the Middle East and North Africa, as evidenced by the higher percentage
of young people, is also reflected in birth and fertility rates, which are higher here than in other areas.
West Bank and Gaza ranks first in the Mediterranean region in terms of fertility and birth rates, with an
average of 3.3 children per woman and 27.1 live births per thousand inhabitants. Israel and Egypt follow
(with an average of 2.78 and 2.74 children per woman, respectively); Syria and Egypt rank second and third
in terms of birth rates (22.1 and 21.0 per thousand). In contrast, the birth rate is rather low in European
Union countries, and in 2023 Italy has the lowest birth rate (6.4 per thousand), followed by Spain (6.7 per
thousand), accompanied by the lowest fertility rate after Malta (1.18 and 1.11 children per woman,
respectively). The decline in births, as is well known, is determined both by the decline in fertility and
by the reduction in the number of potential parents.
Considering the most populous countries in the Mediterranean area, fertility trends have followed different
trajectories since the beginning of the century (Figure 2). Among these, the dynamics in Egypt, Algeria and
Morocco are more sustained, with levels ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 children per woman, although the indicator in
Egypt and Morocco shows a continuous decline, especially in recent years. In Algeria, on the other hand, the
trend was upward until 2019, then reversed with a steady decline that seems to be bringing fertility back to
the initial level of the period. In the three most populous European countries in this area (France, Italy and
Spain), the lowest fertility levels have not been particularly dynamic and, since the end of the first decade
considered, are returning to the levels observed at the beginning of the period.
Figure 2 – Total fertility rate in the most populous countries of the Mediterranean region. Period 2001-2024
(average no. of children per woman)
...
Life expectancy and infant mortality
Indicators relating to mortality and life expectancy at birth for 2023 allow us to identify three distinct
types of countries in the Mediterranean area in the most recent data (Figure 3). A group of nine countries
with a total life expectancy (males and females) above 80 years and infant mortality rates below 5 per
thousand live births (with the exception of Malta, at 6.2): this group includes eight European Union
countries (with the exception of Croatia) plus Israel. In these countries, life expectancy at birth continues
to increase for various reasons, resulting in an increase in life expectancy, which reaches its maximum value
in Spain (83.9 years) in 2023. Infant mortality, on the other hand, is declining and, in several cases
(Portugal, Spain, Italy, Slovenia and Israel), is below 3 per thousand live births.
There is also a second intermediate group of ten countries with a life expectancy at birth of less than 80
years, accompanied by an infant mortality rate below the threshold of 10 per thousand, although the latter in
turn divides these countries into two blocks: five of them, mainly in the Western Balkans (Bosnia and
Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro) and Croatia, have an even lower infant mortality rate, below
or close to 5 per thousand.
Finally, there is a third group comprising six countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Algeria, Syria,
Libya, Lebanon, Egypt and Morocco) with the highest infant mortality rates, above or close to 15 per thousand
live births, and life expectancy at birth below 80 years. This indicator is even lower in Libya, Egypt and
Syria, with values ranging from 69.3 to 72.1 years.
Figure 3 – Life expectancy at birth (M and F) and infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births).
Year 2023
...
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Metadata
Indicators
Definition
Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.
Sources
a) World Bank Development Indicators, from: United Nations Population Division, National Statistical Offices, Eurostat; b) Istat for Italy
Methodology
Data are collected through different kinds of sources: national population censuses; estimates for the years before and after the census based on demographic models; administrative data.
Notes
Errors and undercounting occur even in high-income countries. In developing countries errors may be substantial because of limits in the transport, communications, and other resources required to conduct and analyze a full census. The quality and reliability of official demographic data are also affected by public trust in the government, government commitment to full and accurate enumeration, confidentiality and protection against misuse of census data, and census agencies' independence from political influence.
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Exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage.
Sources
a) World Bank Development Indicators, from: United Nations Population Division, National Statistical Offices, Eurostat; b) Istat for Italy
Methodology
Total population growth rates are calculated on the assumption that rate of growth is constant between two points in time. The growth rate is computed using the exponential growth formula: r = ln(pn/p0)/n, where r is the exponential rate of growth, ln() is the natural logarithm, pn is the end period population, p0 is the beginning period population, and n is the number of years in between. Note that this is not the geometric growth rate used to compute compound growth over discrete periods.
Notes
Errors and undercounting occur even in high-income countries. In developing countries errors may be substantial because of limits in the transport, communications, and other resources required to conduct and analyze a full census. The quality and reliability of official demographic data are also affected by public trust in the government, government commitment to full and accurate enumeration, confidentiality and protection against misuse of census data, and census agencies' independence from political influence.
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Percentage of older dependents--people older than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15-64, at the 1st January of each year.
Sources
a) Wemed calculations based on data from World Bank Development Indicators and United Nations Population Division; b) Istat for Italy
Methodology
Age structure in the World Bank's population estimates is based on the age structure in United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects. A description of the empirical data used and the methods applied in revising past estimates of population and components of demographic change is available for each country in: https://population.un.org/wpp/DataSources/.
Notes
Dependency ratios capture variations in the proportions of children, elderly people, and working-age people in the population that imply the dependency burden that the working-age population bears in relation to children and the elderly. But ratios show only the age composition of a population, not economic dependency. Some children and elderly people are part of the labor force, and many working-age people are not.
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Population between the ages 0 to 14 as a percentage of the total population at the 1st January of each year.
Sources
a) Wemed calculations based on data from World Bank Development Indicators and United Nations Population Division; b) Istat for Italy
Methodology
Age structure in the World Bank's population estimates is based on the age structure in United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects. A description of the empirical data used and the methods applied in revising past estimates of population and components of demographic change is available for each country in: https://population.un.org/wpp/DataSources/.
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Population ages 65 and above as a percentage of the total population at the 1st January of each year.
Sources
a) Wemed calculations based on data from World Bank Development Indicators and United Nations Population Division; b) Istat for Italy
Methodology
Age structure in the World Bank's population estimates is based on the age structure in United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects. A description of the empirical data used and the methods applied in revising past estimates of population and components of demographic change is available for each country in: https://population.un.org/wpp/DataSources/.
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Number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear.
Sources
a) World Bank Development Indicators, from: United Nations Population Division, National Statistical Offices, Eurostat; b) Istat for Italy
Methodology
The rates are based on data from birth and death registration systems, censuses, and sample surveys by national statistical offices and other organizations, or on demographic analysis. The estimates may be projections based on extrapolations of levels and trends from earlier years or interpolations of population estimates and projections from the United Nations Population Division.
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The average number of live births a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality. It is expressed as live births per woman.
Sources
a) elaborazioni World Bank Development Indicators su dati di United Nations Population Division (UNPD), agenzie nazionali di statistica, Eurostat; b) Istat per l'Italia
Methodology
It results from the sum of the specific fertility rates calculated by comparing, for each fertile age, the number of live births to the average annual amount of the female population.
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Number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.
Sources
a) elaborazioni World Bank Development Indicators su dati di United Nations Population Division, agenzie nazionali di statistica, Eurostat; b) Istat per l'Italia
Methodology
Life expectancy at birth used here is the average number of years a newborn is expected to live if mortality patterns at the time of its birth remain constant in the future. It reflects the overall mortality level of a population, and summarizes the mortality pattern that prevails across all age groups in a given year. It is calculated in a period life table which provides a snapshot of a population's mortality pattern at a given time. It therefore does not reflect the mortality pattern that a person actually experiences during his/her life, which can be calculated in a cohort life table.
Notes
Annual data series from United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects are interpolated data from 5-year period data. Therefore they may not reflect real events as much as observed data. High mortality in young age groups significantly lowers the life expectancy at birth. But if a person survives his/her childhood of high mortality, he/she may live much longer. For example, in a population with a life expectancy at birth of 50, there may be few people dying at age 50. The life expectancy at birth may be low due to the high childhood mortality so that once a person survives his/her childhood, he/she may live much longer than 50 years.
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Number of infants dying before reaching one year of age, per 1,000 live births in a given year.
Sources
a) United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation; b) Istat per l'Italia
Methodology
Depending on the data source, mortality rates can be calculated several ways: a) Vital Registration – The calculation of Infant mortality rates is derived from a standard period abridged life table using the age-specific deaths and mid-year population counts from civil registration data. b) Survey and Census Data (Birth Histories and Sibling Survival Histories) - Survey and census data on under-five child mortality typically come in one of two or forms: the full birth history (FBH), whereby women are asked for the date of birth of each of their children, whether the child is still alive, and if not, the age at death; and the summary birth history (SBH), whereby women are asked only about the number of children they have ever given birth to and the number that have died (or, equivalently, the number still alive). Either birth history results in retrospective child mortality rates referring to some period prior to the survey date. Rates can be derived using a direct estimation method from the FBH. SBH data, collected by censuses and many household surveys, can be used to derive retrospective infant, child and under-five mortality rate estimates by using an indirect estimation method, i.e. a proxy is used for the exposure time of the mother’s children to the risk of death. The Brass method and model life tables are used to obtain an indirect estimate of infant and under-five mortality rates. Istat data for Italy fall into case a) (Vital statistics on causes of death) and refer to mortality by territory of residence.
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