Environment, climate, and territory

DOI: doi.org/10.71671/JFC6-VW40

The Mediterranean region exhibits a remarkable variety of physical, morphological and environmental characteristics, both on land and at sea. Population patterns are diverse, with varying levels of urbanisation, rural areas, the impacts of climate change and water resource management.

Overview

  • European Union
  • Western Balkans
  • Middle East
  • North Africa
Indicators Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area) Rural population (% of total population) Urban population (% of total population) Mean annual air temperature at 2 m above the surface of land Total precipitation Total Evaporation Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (billion cubic meters) Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources area_code ordgeo
Countries 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2022 2022
Portugal 16.8 22.8 31.6 68.4 16.0 665.8 -606.4 6.1 12.3 A 1
Spain 12.8 28.1 18.2 81.8 14.6 659.8 -557.2 29.0 43.2 A 2
France 49.8 28.6 18.0 82.0 12.1 1,069.3 -690.2 24.4 21.4 A 3
Italy 10.7 21.6 27.7 72.3 13.8 1,089.1 -649.5 33.8 29.8 A 4
Slovenia 2.9 40.5 43.6 56.4 11.2 1,327.2 -714.4 0.8 5.6 A 5
Croatia 9.3 38.4 41.1 58.9 13.6 996.9 -734.8 0.7 1.5 A 6
Greece 4.7 35.0 19.0 81.0 15.9 647.8 -631.1 10.1 20.3 A 7
Malta 7.8 28.9 5.0 95.0 20.3 306.4 -599.8 0.0 72.6 A 8
Cyprus 8.6 38.6 32.9 67.1 20.4 326.1 -406.0 0.2 30.5 A 9
Serbia .. 13.4 42.6 57.4 13.1 640.0 -646.0 5.1 5.7 B 10
Kosovo .. .. .. .. 11.6 765.5 -647.3 .. .. B 11
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.0 9.5 49.3 50.7 11.7 1,050.7 -699.3 0.3 2.1 B 12
Montenegro 5.6 21.7 31.2 68.8 10.5 1,341.2 -684.1 2.2 .. B 13
North Macedonia .. 28.2 40.1 59.9 12.4 677.5 -607.8 2.2 52.5 B 14
Albania 3.4 23.6 34.6 65.4 13.6 1,128.5 -716.4 0.8 4.8 B 15
Turkiye 1.7 7.0 22.1 77.9 12.5 617.0 -554.3 64.5 44.1 C 16
Syrian Arab Republic 0.2 0.7 42.0 58.0 20.0 162.9 -196.5 14.0 124.4 C 17
Lebanon 0.2 7.9 10.4 89.6 16.1 404.8 -485.0 1.8 58.8 C 18
Jordan 2.8 5.4 7.8 92.2 20.1 41.7 -60.5 0.9 105.2 C 19
Israel 0.6 27.6 7.0 93.0 21.0 125.9 -180.9 1.5 129.7 C 20
West Bank and Gaza 0.0 10.0 22.1 77.9 20.6 200.6 -306.3 0.3 48.1 C 21
Egypt, Arab Rep. 4.6 13.2 56.7 43.3 23.5 8.3 -42.9 77.5 141.2 D 22
Libya 0.6 0.1 18.1 81.9 23.2 17.1 -27.9 5.7 817.1 D 23
Tunisia 1.1 7.9 29.1 70.9 21.1 141.1 -164.2 3.9 98.1 D 24
Algeria 0.1 4.7 24.2 75.8 24.6 48.7 -61.8 10.3 144.8 D 25
Morocco 0.3 2.1 34.4 65.6 19.3 211.5 -211.2 10.6 50.8 D 26

Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)

  • Serbia No data available
  • Kosovo No data available
  • North Macedonia No data available

Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)

  • Kosovo No data available

Rural population (% of total population)

  • Kosovo No data available

Urban population (% of total population)

  • Kosovo No data available

Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (billion cubic meters)

  • Kosovo No data available

Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources

  • Kosovo No data available
  • Montenegro No data available

Some highlighted topics

Forested and protected areas

The recent global focus on biodiversity is a clear sign of political and environmental concern on this issue, leading to the setting of ambitious global goals and quantitative targets. The United Nations, through Target 3 of the Global Biodiversity Framework, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 14 and 15 of the (2030 Agenda), has set the course by encouraging the protection of large swathes of land and water. In this scenario, the Mediterranean area—a biodiversity hotspot—appear simultaneously one of the most vulnerable areas, exposed to climate change and land consumption due to a poorly regulated urban and tourist expansion.

The data, however, show a variegated picture with significant differences across regions in the progress made. Between 2013 and 2024, European Union countries have increased their marine protected areas by an average above 9%; some countries, such as France, even doubled their coverage from 20.4% to 49.8% of their territorial waters. Despite this positive European momentum, the SDG-related "30 by 30" target (protecting 30% of marine waters by 2030) is for many countries far from being reached. Countries such as Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, and Cyprus, as well as Montenegro and Albania, despite showing some progress, still have less than 10% of their territorial waters as protected areas. Progress is even slower in other parts of the Mediterranean basin. In both the Middle East and North Africa countries, marine protection efforts are modest, with protected areas often falling below 1% of all territorial waters. The ongoing policies aiming at terrestrial protection also face challenges in meeting the 30% 2030 target; only a few countries— namely Greece, Croatia, and Cyprus— seem to be able to achieve this goal or to get close to it. Conversely, Italy is unlikely to reach the fixed target, with just 21.6% of its land area currently under protection. In the Balkans, although all countries are currently below the threshold, there has been an encouraging positive trend over the 2013–2024 period, with notable progress made in particular by North Macedonia and Albania. Looking at the rest of the Mediterranean, Israel stands out in the Middle East with a significant share of protected land, reaching 27.6% in 2024. In North Africa, while Egypt (13.2%) and Tunisia (7.9%) have established protected areas, most of the other countries in the region show a very reduced share of protected lands.

Figure 1 - Marine and terrestrial protected areas. 2024 (%)

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Urban and rural population

A joint analysis of urban and rural population indicators confirms that almost all Mediterranean countries are experiencing a steady decline in their rural populations in favour of urban areas. The data show that over the period 2001–2024 urban population growth has significantly increased - albeit at different rates depending on each nation's stage of urban development. Countries with mature urbanization, such as those in the European Union (e.g., France, Spain, and Malta) as well as Israel, are characterized by very high rates of urbanization (above 80%) but by a slow growth of this index, with an average annual evolution rate of urbanization of around 0.2% over the 2001–2024 period. The only exception in the European region is Portugal, showing an average annual growth of 0.6%, this in turn reflecting an ongoing process of transition toward a predominantly urban structure. In the case of Western Balkan area and North Africa, countries such as Albania, Morocco, Turkey, and Algeria are going through a rapid transition. While these countries generally have lower levels of urban population than European nations, they have experienced between 2001 and 2024 a strong demographic growth, with average annual evolution rates of the population above 0.5%—reaching 1% in the case of Albania. The only country showing a negative trend in urban growth is Cyprus, with a -1.7% contraction between 2001 and 2024. In this global trend, Egypt is an outlier, showing low levels of urban population (43.3% in 2024) and a very limited average growth over the 2021-24 period.

However, the population moving from rural areas to cities is not distributed evenly. In countries such as North Macedonia, Israel, Lebanon, and Egypt, population flows are directed mainly toward large cities (those with more than 300,000 inhabitants), which are generally located on the coasts; in these cases, the urban population residing in such agglomerations exceeds 45% of the total. In other countries, partly due to the presence of homogeneous infrastructure and service networks, the population is redistributed across smaller towns and peri-urban areas.

Ultimately, the analysis shows that urban population growth, particularly in large metropolitan areas, is a non-reversible trend. This transition would require appropriate policies and tools to mitigate the problems associated with this phenomenon and the parallel depopulation of rural areas, which has inevitable negative impacts on the environment, pollution, landscape, access to essential services, and social inequality.

Figure 2 - Urban population. 2001 and 2024 (% of total population)

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Climate

The Mediterranean basin, which has always been a crossroads of civilisations and cultures, is now one of the areas most exposed to the impacts of climate change. The analysis is based on data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (ERA5-Land), a climate reanalysis tool that provides a consistent and detailed reconstruction of terrestrial variables on a decadal scale. With a spatial resolution of approximately 9 km (0.1° x 0.1°), it has been possible to observe the climate evolution of individual countries since 1991.

Specifically, in order to assess current trends, the analysis compares the variability of the last four years (2021-2024) with the 30-year climatological reference average (1991-2020).

The results outline an ongoing climate emergency: an inexorable rise in temperatures and a growing water deficit.

The analysis examines the trend in average annual air temperatures, measured at 2 metres above ground level, in countries bordering the Mediterranean basin. From a geographical point of view, the average values naturally reflect the characteristics of the different climatic areas: North Africa remains the structurally warmest area, while the Western Balkans have the lowest average temperatures. However, beyond local differences, the cross-cutting data common to all countries is an unequivocal increase in average temperatures, a direct consequence of global climate change (Figure 3).

Analysing anomalies compared to the thirty-year reference period, the most marked warming peaks are observed in various areas of the basin. Algeria reaches the maximum value with an increase of 1.3°C. The European continent also shows clear signs: Spain records the largest increase (+1.2°C), a value similar to that found in Serbia, for the Western Balkans area, and in Turkey for the Middle East.

It should be noted that the use of the annual average value, although essential for identifying underlying trends, does not allow seasonal variability to be fully captured. The latter, in fact, can manifest themselves with very different intensities and dynamics between countries, masking any extreme events that the annual average alone tends to level out.

In parallel with the rise in temperatures, analysis of cumulative annual precipitation paints a clear picture of declining water availability across the Mediterranean basin. A comparison between the climatological average for the thirty-year period 1991-2020 and that of the last four years (2021-2024) shows that every single country in the area is facing a reduction in rainfall, albeit with varying intensity depending on latitude (Figure 3).

The most critical issues are concentrated in North Africa, where the decline in rainfall is reaching dramatic proportions. Countries such as Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria have seen their natural water supplies almost halved, with percentage reductions ranging from 44% to 46%. A similar situation, with slightly lower values, can be found in the Middle East, where Lebanon and Israel have recorded declines of around 40%.

Turning our attention to Europe, the negative trend is confirmed everywhere. Italy, in particular, has suffered a 20.1% reduction, falling from a historical average of over 1,000 mm per year to just under 900 mm in recent times. The Iberian Peninsula is also showing signs of severe suffering, with Portugal losing over a quarter of its historical rainfall (-26.7%). Not even the Balkan area, historically the rainiest in the region, is immune to this trend: Montenegro and Croatia, for example, have recorded declines of more than 20%.

In conclusion, the data outline a clear trend towards structural “meteo-climatic drought” in the Mediterranean area. However, these average values must be interpreted with caution: the reduction in annual rainfall is often accompanied by greater irregularity in weather patterns, with long dry periods interrupted by extreme rainfall events which, while not compensating for the annual water deficit, increase the risk of hydrogeological hazards (floods and landslides).

Figure 3 - Mean temperature, total precipitation and total evaporation – Period 2021-2024 vs 1991-2020 (%)

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Analysis of total cumulative annual evaporation in the Mediterranean area, comparing the period 2021–2024 with the thirty-year period 1991–2020, confirms a significant aggravating factor for the regional water crisis: there is a widespread increase in surface evaporation (including vegetation transpiration) in almost all the countries analysed. This increase is directly attributable to higher temperatures and indicates that the atmosphere is intensifying the removal of moisture from the soil and vegetation (Figure 3).

The largest increases are evident in North Africa, followed by the Middle East. Algeria, with an increase of 39.8%, leads the ranking of percentage increases, followed by Morocco and Tunisia, with increases of more than 30%. In the Middle East, Lebanon and Israel recorded exceptionally high increases, exceeding 29%, suggesting an intense response of local evaporation processes to warming.

Although to a lesser extent, continental Mediterranean Europe shows a trend consistent with other countries in the Mediterranean basin: Malta and Portugal in particular recorded increases of 20.8% and 18.6% respectively. A similar trend can be observed in the Western Balkans, with Serbia achieving a total evaporation increase of 13.3%.

In summary, the increase in total evaporation combined with the precipitation deficit exacerbates water stress conditions, reducing the amount of available water resources.

Water resources

Water resource data are analysed using two main indicators: annual freshwater withdrawal (calculated excluding losses due to evaporation from storage basins) and water stress level, which measures the ratio between freshwater withdrawals and total available water resources. The smaller the margin between water supply and demand, the greater the vulnerability of a territory to water scarcity.

According to the reference literature, a country is classified as experiencing “extreme water stress” when it uses at least 80% of its available water resources, while “high water stress” occurs when withdrawals reach 40% of reserves. Increased hydrological variability and climate change have a significant impact on the water sector, affecting the hydrological cycle, availability, demand and allocation of water on a global, basin and local scale. In this context, efficient water resource management is a key factor for economic growth, poverty reduction and improved equity, particularly in developing countries.

Total annual freshwater withdrawals are strongly correlated with the size of countries and the specific characteristics of their water resources. In light of this, the highest values for the annual withdrawal indicator are recorded in Egypt (77.5 billion m³) and Turkey (64.5 billion m³), followed by Italy, Spain and France, with withdrawals of 33.8, 29.0 and 24.4 billion m³ respectively.

From the point of view of water stress, the most critical situations are found in North African and Middle Eastern countries, characterised by indicator values exceeding 100% of available resources. This includes Libya, Egypt, Algeria, Syria, Israel and Jordan (Figure 4). Tunisia also falls into the category of extreme water stress, with values above the 80% threshold. A further group of countries, spread across the entire Mediterranean area, has high levels of water stress, with values between 40% and 50%: these include Spain, Turkey, North Macedonia, Lebanon, Palestine and Morocco.

Over the last twenty years, water stress levels have worsened overall, particularly in certain countries that were already experiencing critical conditions in 2002, such as Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Malta and Lebanon. Conversely, in other countries, pressure on water resources has eased since the beginning of the century: this is the case in Syria and Morocco, where the situation remains critical, and in Italy and Portugal, where stress levels are more moderate.

Figure 4 - Level of water stress (freshwater withdrawal in proportion to available freshwater resources) in 2022 and difference in percentage points compared to 2002 (a)

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Environment and Natural Resources > Environment, climate, and territory